Will house prices fall in 2023 and 2024?

In the hopes of reassuring borrowers and prospective buyers, the team of experts at www.onlinemortgageadvisor.co.uk have analysed the current climate of the market and outlined their predictions for how house prices might change over the next two years. 

How much have house prices dropped by already?

After a period of rapid house price rises over the past two years, property values have recently started to fall and are expected to fall further in 2023 and 2024. Halifax’s latest House Price Index (HPI) revealed that average house prices dropped by 2.3% in November – the most significant since 2008.

Prospective house buyers and sellers have become increasingly cautious, with many choosing to wait for the market to stabilise before they consider buying or selling. This shows that the market is beginning to slow down as a result. Over the past few months, following interest rate rises and the fallout of the Government’s mini-budgets, mortgage rates rose significantly, and this coupled with the financial pressures of the cost-of-living crisis has unsurprisingly led to a decline in buyer demand, which’ll likely continue, causing house prices to fall further.

While it was also recently revealed that most mortgage lenders are cutting mortgage rates down – with average rates having fallen below 6% – it’s unlikely this will have a significant impact on house prices for a while.  

Will house prices crash?

While house prices will decrease over the next two years, they’re not currently expected to crash in the same way that they did during the last financial crisis. One reason for this is the stamp duty cut, which makes it more affordable for some buyers to purchase a property, as well as support from Government schemes, which’ll likely increase demand. Additionally, supply will be lower, with some major builders reducing the number of new homes they plan to add over the next year, in turn keeping house prices higher. 

Overall, the property market is expected to recover fairly swiftly, and supply and demand will not shift as significantly as in the past, so we’re not predicting a sudden crash anytime soon.

House price predictions for 2023/24

Following a trend of property market inflation, house prices have now started to drop, as shown in the recent HPI reports. It’s expected that this trend will continue, with house prices falling by up to 8% in 2023. This is due to the fact that mortgage rates have risen significantly, putting pressure on prices as demand for properties reduces. 

Looking ahead to 2024, this trend is expected to continue, with the Office for Budget Responsibility projecting that prices could fall by 9%, before rising again in 2025. While this is a significant drop, it will not be as severe a crash as we’ve seen in the past and the property market is expected to recover over the next two years.