UK HPI: London house prices continue to apply the brakes to the market

The latest UK House Price Index from the Land Registry and the ONS has revealed that, across the UK, average house prices increased by 1.4% in the year to April, down from 1.6% in March.

Related topics:  Property
Warren Lewis
19th June 2019
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Strong growth was seen in Wales, reaching 6.7%, up from 3.9% in March 2019 largely due to falling prices. 

According to the figures, the average house price in England increased by 1.1% over the year to April 2019, down slightly from 1.3% in March 2019. House prices in Scotland increased by 1.6% in the year to April 2019, down from 3.5% in the year to March 2019. Northern Ireland house prices increased by 3.5% over the year to Q1.

By region, the lowest annual growth was in London, where prices fell by 1.2% over the year to April 2019, up from a fall of 2.5% in March 2019.

The East Midlands was the English region with the highest annual growth, with prices increasing by 2.9% in the year to April 2019. This was followed by the North West, with prices increasing by 2.6%.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in the UK increased by 0.7% between March and April, compared with a rise of 1.0% in average prices during the same period a year earlier. On a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in the UK saw a monthly fall of 0.2%.

As ever, the property industry was quick to react. Here's what they're saying:

Gareth Lewis, commercial director of property lender MT Finance, says: "There is a welcome absence of doom and gloom as the housing market continues to be muted on the transactional side but with no great price shocks either.

House price growth is picking up outside of London and the south-east, which is encouraging as it creates more balance to the country as a whole, although London prices still remain at a premium. Hotspots for investors include Middlesbrough, Nottingham, Newcastle and university areas, where the transactional flow has greatly increased as investors chase yield. Values are therefore creeping up in response to greater demand for property in those areas."

Jonathan Harris, director of mortgage broker Anderson Harris, says: "While historic, this index is useful because it records prices achieved rather than asking prices. Price growth continued to rise in the year to April, although this masked significant regional differences.

Wales saw the strongest house price growth while London once again saw the greatest annual fall as areas outside the capital pick up the pace as London falters. That said, there is still a significant premium to pay to buy property in London and the south-east with first-time buyers increasingly having to call upon the Bank of Mum and Dad for help with the deposit.

Lenders continue to cut mortgage rates so there is no upwards pressure on pricing - the biggest challenge is meeting lenders’ affordability criteria and pulling together that all-important deposit."

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, says: "Once again, we are seeing house prices in London acting as a drag on a market which is softening anyway. Prices continue to be supported by lack of stock, improving affordability and almost record low mortgage rates and unemployment.

Overall, despite renewed interest from buyers there are too many sellers still wedded to the idea that prices will increase perhaps when Brexit is resolved and/or some political stability returns. The reality is that only those sellers who are realistic enough to recognise new market conditions are proving successful."

Colby Short, Founder and CEO of GetAgent.com, commented: “Despite being brought to its knees in recent months as a result of wider economic and political influences, the market certainly seems to have dusted itself off and while current price growth is nothing to write home about, it is there or thereabouts for this time of year and continues to register positive movement.

The major sticking point slowing the market has been the price sellers are willing to accept but with transactions increasing, this obstacle when securing a sale seems to be subsiding.

It’s likely we will see positive price growth continue to prevail throughout the year as market tension eases and the number of properties transacting continues to grow. Slowly does it, but as long as the market it is doing it, the outlook is a positive one.”

Marc von Grundherr, Director of Benham and Reeves, commented: “The market is continuing to build on the previous positive foundations laid early this year and it would seem that not even the sustained chaos of Brexit can dent market sentiment.

This is not only echoed by positive price growth but by a rejuvenated level of buyer demand, with mortgage approvals returning to good health, as well as a boost in transaction levels that have otherwise been lacking.

While conditions remain slower than we might otherwise like, it takes time to return to form after suffering a setback like the slowdown that has plagued the UK property market over the last year or so.

The rot is even reversing in the London market and although prices are still down annually, this rate of decline is slowing, and it will only be a matter of time before the capital registers a new era of positive price growth.”

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