"Looking ahead, easing mortgage affordability rules and expectations of interest rate cuts could support demand, especially in London and the South"
- Rob Owens - e.surv
The housing market across England and Wales showed signs of stabilisation in June, with the latest e.surv Acadata House Price Index (HPI) reporting an unchanged average property price of £358,000 compared to the previous month.
This flatlining follows a period of modest decline and may signal that downward price pressures are starting to ease.
Although average prices remain 1.3% lower than in June 2024, this annual figure has remained broadly consistent in recent months, suggesting a potential plateau. The index, which tracks both completed cash and mortgage purchases, offers a comprehensive view of market conditions.
A notable shift has been observed in London. For the first time in 18 months, the capital’s impact on national pricing trends was minimal. In May, London registered a 2.7% monthly increase in average prices, while its annual contribution to overall price change across England and Wales was just -0.2%. This represents a substantial reduction in the capital's previous drag on headline figures and offers a more balanced national picture.
Transaction volumes also show early signs of improvement. HMRC data indicates a partial recovery in activity during May, as distortions from earlier stamp duty changes began to unwind. Buyers have started returning to the market, contributing to increased stability.
The figures suggest that a combination of policy adjustments, affordability shifts, and market resilience in key regions may help underpin a gradual recovery in the second half of the year.
“Looking ahead, easing mortgage affordability rules and expectations of interest rate cuts could support demand, especially in London and the South,” said Rob Owens, head of research at e.surv. “The Spending Review focused on the social rented sector, with further details on home ownership support expected later this year. If combined with rising mortgage approvals and improving sentiment, the market could finish 2025 on a stronger note.”
