Bridging completions are forecast to reach £8bn across 2026 as a whole, despite a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the opening quarter, according to new analysis from specialist lender Octane Capital.
The lender analysed bridging completion data over the previous 24 months using an ETS exponential smoothing forecasting model, accounting for seasonality and based on a middle-bound confidence interval, to project where the market could stand by year-end.
Completions totalled £1.8bn in Q1 2026, representing a 26.5% fall on Q4 2025 and a 35.7% annual decline compared to the same quarter last year. The slowdown, however, follows an exceptional two-year run for the sector.
Annual completions grew from £5.76bn in 2023 to £7.34bn in 2024, before the market crossed £10bn for the first time in 2025, reaching an estimated £10.03bn.
Octane Capital's model suggests activity will recover from Q1's subdued levels. An £8bn full-year total would represent a contraction against 2025's record, but would still leave annual bridging volumes around 39% higher than they were in 2023.
"The wider bridging market may have started the year at a more subdued level following the exceptional growth seen in recent years, but that certainly wasn't reflective of our own experience at Octane, where we enjoyed a very strong first half, further strengthened by our acquisition by Aldermore," said Jonathan Samuels, chief executive of Octane Capital (pictured).
"More broadly, it's important not to mistake a short-term market slowdown for a fundamental reduction in the importance of bridging finance. Our forecast suggests that completions could still reach around £8bn by the end of the year."
Samuels acknowledged the gap between the projected figure and last year's peak. "That would understandably fall short of the record-breaking levels seen in 2025, but it would still leave the market almost 40% larger than it was in 2023, demonstrating just how significantly bridging's role within the wider lending landscape has grown."
He pointed to structural demand as the reason for the market's resilience. "The fundamental drivers behind this growth haven't disappeared. Borrowers still require speed and certainty, investors need the flexibility to act when opportunities arise, and developers increasingly require funding solutions that can accommodate more complex project and exit timelines.
"So whilst 2026 may prove to be a year of recalibration for the wider market rather than one of record-breaking growth, bridging finance remains firmly established as a vital part of the property finance landscape."
