"The year-on-year dip in transaction volumes comes as no surprise. We're comparing today’s market against the outlier of October 2024, where we saw a spike in activity as investors rushed to complete ahead of the Stamp Duty surcharge being introduced"
- Ryan McGrath - Pepper Money
Seasonally adjusted residential transactions increased by 2% in October 2025, rising from 96,730 in September to 98,450, according to the latest data released by HMRC. This represents the highest seasonally adjusted figure since March 2025.
Non-seasonally adjusted residential transactions were 13% higher in October compared with September 2025.
Seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions also rose, up 4% from September 2025, though still 29% lower than October 2024. Last October recorded the highest non-residential transaction figures since records began in 2005, a surge likely linked to speculation ahead of the Autumn Budget 2024. Non-seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions were 10% higher than in September 2025.
Nathan Emerson, CEO at Propertymark, comments, “Typically on the lead up to any Budget announcement, the housing market can witness a degree of hesitation, as people look to assess what might be proposed. However, any such impact beforehand is not an exact science to the magnitude of uncertainty. With lower base rates than only twelve months back, it is positive to see forward momentum in terms of growth in the number of housing transactions taking place both year on year and month on month while referring to the non-seasonally adjusted figures.
“Within the Budget, it was disappointing not to witness any support for first-time buyers and assistance for those who may be considering downsizing in the Budget at a time of extreme demand on current housing stock. There has been what feels like a missed opportunity to promote the concept of people being able to move more easily to a property that fits their precise needs.”
Ryan McGrath, director of second charge mortgages at Pepper Money, says, “The year-on-year dip in transaction volumes comes as no surprise. We're comparing today’s market against the outlier of October 2024, where we saw a spike in activity as investors rushed to complete ahead of the Stamp Duty surcharge being introduced. When you look past that anomaly to the month-on-month picture, the data paints a picture of a resilient market, albeit in a 'wait-and-see' pattern.
“However, beneath this stability lies a layer of anxiety and volatility ahead of this week's Budget. The confirmation of a 2% rise in property income tax could be the final straw for many landlords, leaving operating margins increasingly fragile. Simultaneously, the new 'Mansion Tax' surcharge risks injecting a chilling effect at the top of the market, causing buyers and sellers to hesitate as they calculate their exposure.”
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and former RICS residential chairman, notes, “Resilient transaction numbers suggest housing market activity will continue even without government assistance, which was so lacking in the Budget."
“This is vital as any drop off in the number of transactions has a multiplier effect on the wider economy, not just the housing market. Transactions are a better barometer of market health than more volatile house prices, even though they reflect cash and mortgaged buyer activity perhaps three or four months earlier."
“As affordability gradually improves, especially with another base rate cut looking likely, we expect transaction numbers to pick up. With the Budget out of the way, and Mansion Tax likely to raise relatively little additional revenue, especially given the deferred payment date, the impact on housing market activity should be minimal at worst.”
