"Our analysis shows that to pick up the necessary speed to meet the target, record-breaking numbers of homes will need to be built in a short space of time"
- Faraz Baber - Lanpro
Labour has staked much of its economic strategy on housing. The government’s promise to deliver 1.5 million homes by 2029 is intended to improve affordability, boost construction productivity and stimulate growth. But analysis from planning consultancy Lanpro based on government figures shows that despite a flurry of policy announcements, delivery is 10 per cent down on the ten-year average, and well below the 300,000 per year widely accepted as the minimum needed to reach Labour’s pledge. At current rates, only half of that figure is set to be met.
The latest estimates from the Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) indicate that around 196,500 dwellings were added to England’s housing stock in 2024–25, an average of 16,375 homes a month.
By contrast, the previous decade averaged 222,746 homes a year: 18,562 per month.
If delivery continues at today’s rate, Lanpro calculates that the country will be around 860,000 homes short by the end of 2029 – missing the headline 1.5 million target by about 46 per cent.
Regional imbalances
Lanpro’s new mapping shows a starkly uneven picture. The South East and London, where housing need is most acute, are also the furthest from meeting targets – achieving just 47 per cent and 35 per cent of their estimated requirements in 2024–25. By contrast, parts of the East Midlands (79 per cent) and North East (77 per cent) are closer to keeping pace.
At the local authority level, the contrast is even sharper. Preston added homes at 232 per cent of assessed need in 2023–24, with Ribble Valley (186 per cent) and Salford (196 per cent) also exceeding targets. Yet many high-demand southern councils delivered less than 20 per cent of the homes they require – with Kensington and Chelsea at just 5 per cent and Bromley at 8 per cent.
This mismatch reveals that the regions and boroughs with the greatest affordability crisis are least likely to meet targets.
Policy ambition versus delivery reality
Labour has introduced reforms aimed at unlocking land and investment – including the introduction of the 'grey belt', setting mandatory housing targets and launching a National Housing Bank to channel capital into new development. But planning bottlenecks, infrastructure constraints, and market uncertainty remain.
Commenting on the research, Faraz Baber, Chief Operating Officer at Lanpro, said: “During the Labour Party Conference, we heard the mantra ‘build baby build’ numerous times. Yet our analysis shows that to pick up the necessary speed to meet the target, record-breaking numbers of homes will need to be built in a short space of time. Based on the current housing delivery trajectory, if we do not see a significant uptick with immediate effect, we could see the target missed by almost half.
“This will require a holistic, cross-departmental collaborative approach, led by both No.10 and the Treasury, working with local authorities and government agencies. It will require a significant number of these homes to be built directly by the Government and its associated agencies, and will require alignment with transport and energy planning."
“Failing this, it’s not clear how the target will be met.”
