"Falling mortgage rates have eased the pressure to chase affordability hundreds of miles away, and the return to office-based working has made proximity matter again. It’s a pragmatic shift - people still want more space and are keen to future-proof, but they’re balancing that with connectivity and value"
- Aneisha Beveridge - Hamptons
Chart 1 – The number and share of homes outside the capital bought by a Londoner
The rate of London outmigration has slowed to its lowest level in more than a decade, but the bigger change is how far people are moving. Hamptons analysis, which draws on Connells Group data, shows that in 2025, Londoners purchased 5.6% of homes in the rest of England and Wales, down from 5.7% in 2024 and far below the 8.2% recorded in 2022 when pandemic buyers moved for more space. [Chart 1]
While the share has fallen, the number of homes bought outside the capital by a Londoner rose slightly year-on-year to 57,660. [Chart 1] This reflects higher overall transaction volumes. Even so, London outmigration levels remain significantly below the 2021 peak of 103,310 and notably lower than the 2015 to 2019 pre-Covid average of around 70,000 per year.
What has changed is how far people are willing to go. The average mover traded a London home for one 71.6 miles away, 10 miles less than last year and back to 2021 levels. First-time buyers moved 52.3 miles on average, down from 54.8 miles in 2023 when mortgage rates peaked. In total, 54% of London leavers stayed within 50 miles of the capital, up from 47% in 2024, reinforcing a clear pattern of staying closer as financial conditions improve. [Chart 2]
Chart 2 - How far London leavers move
Home counties make a comeback
After several years of being overlooked in favour of more affordable areas further afield, the traditional commuter belt is back on the map. In 2025,18.2% of homes sold in the Home Counties were bought by a Londoner, the highest share since 2017. The figure is up from 15.4% in 2024 and more than 7 percentage points higher than the pandemic low of 11.1% in 2022 (chart 3), when buyers moved further into the South West, Midlands and North in search of space and value.
Today, improved affordability - driven by falling mortgage rates and less stringent affordability tests - means more households can stay closer to the capital. The return to office-based working has reinforced this shift, making locations such as Surrey, Hertfordshire and Buckinghamshire attractive for those seeking a balance of lifestyle and connectivity.
Chart 3 - Share of Home Counties homes bought by a Londoner
Regional shifts
In 2025, 68% of London leavers stayed in the South of England (South East, South West or East of England) - the highest proportion since 2021 and up from 62% in 2024. This marks a reversal of the pandemic and then affordability-led trend that pushed buyers further into the Midlands and North.
The South East has been the biggest beneficiary, accounting for a third of London leavers this year - up 4 percentage points on 2024 and the biggest increase of any region. In contrast, the North West, West Midlands and Scotland recorded falls in the share of Londoners heading there, reflecting a shift towards value-conscious moves closer to the capital.
Local authority spotlight
The move toward staying closer to London is visible at a local level too, with a rise in popularity for destinations around the M25. Chigwell in the East of England tops the list, where the share of buyers from London rose by 35 percentage points year-on-year to 53%. Other areas showing strong growth include Chatham, Caterham, and Fryerns in Basildon, alongside prime spots such as Esher and Gillingham, which had been shunned in recent years in favour of more affordable areas further afield (table 1).
Table 1 - Areas with the biggest year-on-year rise in the share of buyers from London
| Region | % of London buyers 2025 | YoY Change | |
| Chigwell | East of England | 53% | 35% |
| Chattam | South East | 50% | 28% |
| Caterham | South East | 29% | 26% |
| Fryerns | East of England | 42% | 23% |
| Esher | South East | 27% | 17% |
| Gillingham | South East | 28% | 16% |
| Basildon | East of England | 40% | 16% |
| Thorpe Bay | East of England | 20% | 11% |
| Luton | East of England | 34% | 10% |
Conversely, some areas further from the capital have seen demand from London buyers fall back. Sittingbourne, near the Kent Coast, recorded the largest decline, with the share of homes bought by a Londoner falling to 8% this year, down from 21% in 2024. Billericay, Leighton Buzzard and Gravesend also slipped, while further afield, Portsmouth, Leeds, and Derby posted smaller falls - reinforcing the shift away from long-distance lifestyle moves toward locations closer to the capital (table 2).
Table 2 - Areas with the biggest year-on-year fall in the share of buyers from London
| Area | Region | % bought by a Londoner 2025 | YoY Change |
| Sittingbourne | South East | 8% | -13% |
| Billericay | East of England | 12% | -10% |
| Leighton Buzzard | East of England | 5% | -9% |
| Gravesend | South East | 22% | -9% |
| Southend-on-sea | East of England | 20% | -8% |
| Portsmouth | South East | 2% | -6% |
| Walton Vale | North West | 36% | -6% |
| Leeds | Yorkshire & the Humber | 4% | -6% |
| Derby | East Midlands | 2% | -5% |
| Bletchley | South East | 6% | -5% |
Who’s leaving - and why
After years of steadily increasing their share, first-time buyers as a proportion of London leavers slipped for the first time since 2019. They accounted for 31.0% of purchases outside the capital, down slightly from 31.5% last year (chart 4).
A decade ago, that figure was just 19%, underlining the longer-term affordability pressures that pushed aspiring homeowners further afield. However, falling mortgage rates and less stringent affordability tests have reversed that trend, keeping more first-time buyers in London this year. On average, they spent £298,360 on their first home outside of London, £13,450 more than last year.
Chart 4 – Share of London leavers buying outside the capital
By contrast, movers - those selling a home in London - now make up a larger share of leavers, rising to 42.5% from 39.8% last year (chart 4). Despite a subdued London market, households with equity have been able to move as borrowing costs eased. On average, movers spent £457,480 on their new home outside the capital, almost £98,000 more than in 2024, reflecting the boost to purchasing power from lower mortgage rates and the shift back towards more expensive areas close to the capital.
Meanwhile, investor and second-home purchases outside the capital by Londoners have softened, slipping to a combined total of 26.5% from 28.8% last year. This reflects a more cautious stance toward tax and regulatory changes in general (chart 4).
“London leavers are moving back into familiar territory," comments Aneisha Beveridge, Head of Research at Hamptons. "While the pandemic pushed buyers deep into the countryside, this year’s moves have concentrated around the M25."
"Falling mortgage rates have eased the pressure to chase affordability hundreds of miles away, and the return to office-based working has made proximity matter again. It’s a pragmatic shift - people still want more space and are keen to future-proof, but they’re balancing that with connectivity and value."
She added, “Looking ahead, affordability will remain the key driver of London outmigration. If borrowing costs continue to fall, we expect more households to stay in the capital or move shorter distances. The strength of the London market will also play a big role - but with prices unlikely to rise significantly in the coming years, equity gains will remain limited. That means aspiration for a large country manor will be tempered by economics for some time yet.”
