House prices edge up in March: Halifax

"Overall, the market continues to show resilience despite a subdued economic environment and risks from geopolitical developments"
- Amanda Bryden - Halifax

The latest data released this morning from Halifax has revealed that UK house prices rose by +0.3% in March as the market maintained a degree of strength amid wider financial turbulence.

National and regional breakdown 

Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland recorded the strongest annual growth in house prices in the UK, with all three nations outpacing English regions.

Northern Ireland continues to post the highest level of annual property price inflation, rising by +8.1% in March. House prices now average £208,220. 

Wales has the next fastest pace of annual house price growth, increasing to +4.7% last month. The average house price now stands at £229,079. Next comes Scotland, where property prices were up +4.6% year-on-year in April, to an average of £214,011.

In England, the North West shows the strongest growth, up +4.1% on an annual basis, with properties now costing an average of £240,975.

London continues to see more subdued annual house price growth of +1.3%. However the capital remains the most expensive market for properties in the UK, with an average price tag of £543,346.

The South West has the slowest rate of annual property price inflation, at +0.9%. The average house price is £304,451

"UK house prices rose by +0.3% in March, an increase of just under £900. The annual growth rate also ticked up to +3.2%, reaching its highest level so far this year. The typical UK property is now valued at £297,781," comments Halifax head of mortgages, Amanda Bryden. 

“We know the stamp duty changes prompted a surge in transactions in the early part of this year, as buyers rushed to beat the tax-rise deadline. However, this didn't lead to a significant increase in property prices, with the last six months characterised by a stability in prices rarely seen since the pandemic. While the market has cooled slightly since this rush, buyer activity remains strong in comparison to recent years.

She added, “Mortgage rates have continued to fall, with most lenders now offering rates below 4%. Coupled with positive earnings growth that has outpaced broader inflation, these factors have helped to steadily improve affordability for many buyers.

“Overall, the market continues to show resilience despite a subdued economic environment and risks from geopolitical developments. There is likely to be a bump-up in consumer price inflation as household bills increase, but with further base rate cuts also expected, we anticipate a similar trend of modest price growth this year."

Industry reactions

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, said, “Demand has increased as more mortgage rates drop below 4%, which will underpin prices while the momentum is maintained. Tariff turbulence has helped push interest rate expectations lower but buyers could be put off if it gets too bumpy. Inflation caused by new measures such as higher employer national insurance costs remains a risk, which means rates could start heading in the wrong direction again. For now, demand remains solid, especially in needs-driven markets.”

Jason Tebb, President of OnTheMarket, comments, “While the stamp duty concession is out of the way, the housing market continues to shake off external economic concerns and demonstrate remarkable resilience.

"Recent base rate cuts have significantly boosted confidence and activity. With the stamp duty savings now behind us, a further rate reduction from the Bank of England today would be particularly timely, providing much-needed stimulus for the market as the year progresses."

"With property prices remaining relatively steady, this suggests that affordability is having an impact on the amount buyers are willing and/or able to pay. Sellers should seek advice from an experienced local agent to take into account local market nuances, ensuring their asking price reflects this.”

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, says, “The market is baring its teeth. Even when buyers could no longer take advantage of the stamp duty holiday we found the overwhelming majority continued with their moves.

“With plenty of choice of flats in particular, prices have inevitably softened but have held up much better for houses where longer-term need is more apparent. Activity has been supported by strong employment, steady inflation and the southerly direction of travel for mortgage rates, even if cuts are made later rather than sooner than anticipated."

Matt Thompson, head of sales at Chestertons, says, “In April, some house hunters paused their search amid the Easter holidays but sellers remained motivated which resulted in an uplift in the number of properties put up for sale. If the Bank of England decides to cut interest rates today, it would have an imminent impact on buyer activity as more house hunters will feel motivated to start or finalise their search, which will fuel a busier than usual summer market.”

Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, comments, “This is a sign of sustained confidence in the UK’s housing market following a recent Stamp Duty surge in homebuying, and it should give those sellers hoping to take advantage of the traditionally busier spring and summer months motivation to move up the housing ladder.  

“There has been recent data showing confidence in the mortgage market is fragile, and other reports suggesting that mortgage rates are at their lowest level since 2022. Hopefully, the Bank of England can provide further clarity to aspiring homeowners when they meet later today, and if the conditions are right to reduce interest rates, then this should make mortgages more affordable.”