"The near-term reality is that those directly affected by the construction and implementation of such a project could see the value of their home fall, and without certainty around details such as new flight paths, traffic, noise, and air pollution, it’s likely to impact the local market as a whole, not just those directly affected"
- Verona Frankish - Yopa
Research by Yopa indicates that the government’s approval of a second runway at Gatwick Airport could reduce house prices in the surrounding “Gatwick Diamond” area by as much as £40,000 for properties closest to the airport. However, homeowners who remain through construction may benefit in the long term, with potential house price growth of around 9.5% on average once the project is complete.
The Gatwick Diamond includes the local authorities surrounding Gatwick Airport: Crawley, Reigate and Banstead, Horsham, Mid Sussex, Mole Valley, and Tandridge. These areas are expected to see the most direct impact as the £2.2bn privately-financed project progresses.
Yopa analysed current average house prices across these local authorities and assessed how market values could be affected during the planning stage, construction, and once the runway becomes operational. The study also considered the potential long-term benefit for house prices after completion, currently projected for 2030.
House prices could dip £15k at the announcement stage
At the initial planning and announcement stage, properties may experience a small negative adjustment of between -1% and -5% due to buyer uncertainty and concerns over noise and environmental disruption.
Yopa’s analysis assumes an average reduction of -3%, which would mean the greatest loss in Mole Valley, where the average house price could fall by £16,205.
In Reigate and Banstead, a 3% drop would reduce the average home value by £14,588, with Horsham (£13,232) and Mid Sussex (£13,085) seeing similar declines. Homeowners in Crawley would face a smaller impact, with average reductions of £9,790.
Construction could see larger losses of up to £40k
Once construction begins and the runway becomes operational, homes closest to the impact zones or under new flight paths could face more significant reductions. The analysis suggests prices in affected areas could fall by up to -7.5%.
This would translate into reductions of:
£40,513 in Mole Valley
£38,270 in Tandridge
£36,469 in Reigate and Banstead
£33,080 in Horsham
£32,713 in Mid Sussex
£24,475 in Crawley
Long-term growth expected after 2030
Despite short-term losses, homeowners in the Gatwick Diamond may see long-term gains. Once the runway is complete, house prices could rise by an average of 9.5% as the economic benefits of new jobs and improved transport links filter through the local economy.
For those directly affected by construction or new flight paths, this growth could offset some of the initial value reductions. Homes not in the immediate impact zones could see more direct long-term benefits.
“Homeowners within the Gatwick Diamond will be understandably concerned about the potential impact of a second runway on property values across the local market,” said Verona Frankish, CEO of Yopa.
“The near-term reality is that those directly affected by the construction and implementation of such a project could see the value of their home fall, and without certainty around details such as new flight paths, traffic, noise, and air pollution, it’s likely to impact the local market as a whole, not just those directly affected,” Frankish added.
“Such factors carry a negative impact on demand and saleability, and our analysis suggests that, in some areas, households could see as much as £40,000 wiped from the value of their home. The extent of this impact will depend heavily on how the project is managed, while strong noise insulation, clear limits on night flights, and improved transport links could help mitigate some of the downside."
"There is a silver lining, as new transport infrastructure often brings long-term economic benefits, which tend to increase house prices in the years following completion. So, whilst those directly impacted may see fluctuations during the initial phases, the long-term outlook is positive, and the Gatwick Diamond could be one area of the market to watch over the coming years.”
