"The government’s 1.5 million homes pledge is extremely challenging given weak output so far, but it is driving a more permissive planning stance"
- Ian Barnett - LRG
I spend much of my time in conversations between landowners about development, and one theme runs through almost every discussion: the belief amongst landowners that if you wait long enough, the land will always be worth more. In 2026, I think that assumption is more dangerous than ever.
Development costs have risen relentlessly over the past decade. Community Infrastructure Levy, biodiversity net gain, building safety regulation and higher affordable housing requirements all sit on top of higher construction costs and development finance. The result is that land values on the whole have declined.
Policy tailwinds are real, but they will not last forever
Set against these headwinds, the planning policy environment is becoming more favourable for those willing to move. The government’s 1.5 million homes pledge is extremely challenging given weak output so far, but it is driving a more permissive planning stance. With the new NPPF in place, the Planning and Infrastructure Bill close to enactment and further revisions to the NPPF on the horizon, I expect a further loosening of some constraints.
Alongside this we will soon see a suite of non-statutory National Development Management Policies, new design codes, a renewed focus on brownfield (again!), support for SMEs and the end of the duty to co-operate. There are also sensible decisions on Landfill Tax, where ministers have stepped back from changes that would have driven costs higher and undermined housing delivery.
The English Devolution and Community Empowerment Bill will usher in Spatial Development Strategies and new strategic authorities. That long-awaited return to regional planning should allow more coherent planning across boundaries so long as it has time to bed in.
Grey belt, brownfield and new towns will shape the map
For 2026, I see the greatest opportunity in three areas:
First, grey belt and some Green Belt locations will come into sharper focus as the industry build an understanding of how the policy is interpreted. Developers are actively searching for realistic opportunities in these areas. Landowners who understand current values and policy, rather than yesterday’s headline figures, will be best placed to agree deals.
Second, brownfield is again being prioritised. In London, the Homes for London policy note allows a more flexible approach that should support more realistic land pricing on complex urban sites.
Third, the new towns programme. Identifying up to 12 locations, with potential for around 300,000 homes, is exactly the sort of long-term thinking the system has lacked, although there is a risk that speculative schemes and triggered options could complicate delivery the moment red lines appear on the map. Landowners in and around candidate locations should seek clear, early advice, but also understand the likely timeframes involved.
What I want to see from government in early 2026
Progress has been made on planning reform, but policy still treats land, planning, development and property sales as separate worlds. If ministers want the 1.5 million homes target to remain credible, they must align both ends of the chain: a planning system that allows good schemes to come forward and a sales environment that gives buyers confidence.
For landowners, my advice is that 2026 favours those who engage with this new reality, secure planning where appropriate and agree deals that work in today’s market.
