The areas where a stamp duty market crash is most likely to hit

Property Reporter
28th April 2021
For Sale 313

Land Registry data has shown how the market reacted in the run-up to the original stamp duty holiday deadline in March of this year before an extension was announced in the Budget.

Further analysis of the data by, reveals that UK house price growth slowed to an average monthly rate of just 0.34% between November 2020 to February 2021, but in some areas of the market, this decline was far more pronounced.

The findings suggest that these areas could be in for a rough ride when the benefit of the stamp duty holiday does start to peter out.

According to the research, in the City of London, house prices declined at an average rate of -4.6% in the run-up to the original stamp duty deadline, with Hammersmith and Fulham (-3.6%) and Kensington and Chelsea (-2.6%) also home to some of the largest declines.

But this decline wasn’t just seen in the capital and Hyndburn in the North West saw a monthly rate of decline averaging -3%, while house prices in Fylde also dropped -2.1% per month on average.

Flintshire (-1.7%) and Oadby and Wigston (-1.6%) saw an average drop of more than one and a half per cent per month, with the Cotswolds, South Tyneside, Neath Port Talbot, Exeter, Tower Hamlets, Darlington, Wokingham and Carlisle also making the top 15 markets that could be bit hardest by the end of the stamp duty holiday.

Colby Short, Founder and CEO of, commented: “Much was made of the potential property market crash landing that awaited us at the stamp duty holiday finish line. That was until Rishi Sunak swooped in to save the day with his red briefcase of tricks, of course.

"However, we’re now able to see just how the market was reacting in the run-up to the original deadline and before an extension was announced, and it’s clear that cracks were already starting to emerge in a number of locations across England and Wales.

"The good news is that a tapered exit has now been put in place in order to soften this landing, however, the impact is still likely to be felt more in some areas compared to others. It will be interesting to see if it makes much of a difference in the areas that were already showing signs of a decline in February of this year, or they will still feel a greater level of turbulence.”

Related articles
More from Property
Latest from Financial Reporter
Latest from Commercial Reporter
to our newsletter

Join a community of over 30,000 intermediaries and keep up-to-date with industry news and upcoming events via our newsletter.