"It is unlikely that the level of off-plan sales being agreed is sufficient for the government to get close to its 300,000 homes target, given that housebuilders rely on this forward funding to progress on site"
- David Fell - Hamptons
The North West has overtaken London as the leading region for off-plan flat sales, according to Hamptons’ latest annual off-plan sales index.
Drawing on data from across England and Wales, the index reveals that while the national trend shows a decline in new homes sold before completion, several North West cities are seeing a significant rise in off-plan sales. Salford led the way in 2024, with 80% of new flats sold before construction finished—almost double the number recorded in any other local authority. In Liverpool, 75% of new flats were sold off-plan last year.
Other areas in the North also saw more than half of new flats sold before completion. Bradford reported 65%, followed by Selby and Derby at 64%, Doncaster at 60%, Rochdale at 58%, and Gateshead at 53%. In 2016, London boroughs dominated the off-plan rankings. Now, the top 10 is largely made up of smaller northern cities and towns.
Across the North West region as a whole, 63% of flats were sold off-plan in 2024, the highest percentage of any region in England and Wales. This shift comes amid strong price growth in the North West, prompting investors to secure deals at 2024 prices.
By contrast, London’s share of off-plan flat sales dropped to 55%, down from 59% the previous year. This marks the first time since 2007 that any region has recorded a higher proportion of off-plan flat sales than the capital. London’s off-plan share peaked at 81% in 2016, during a period of rapid price recovery following the 2008 financial crisis.
Nationally, the proportion of all new homes—both houses and flats—sold off-plan fell to 31% in 2024, the lowest level since 2012 and down from a peak of 49% in 2016. Most regions have experienced a 10–20% drop in off-plan sales since 2016, while London has seen the sharpest decline. The capital’s share of off-plan new home sales has fallen from 66% in 2016 to 37% in 2024.
This reduction is largely attributed to flatlining house prices in London and the impact of the second home stamp duty surcharge, which has weighed more heavily on higher-value markets.
Investor behaviour has shifted as a result. In contrast to 2016, when rising prices encouraged early commitments, buyers have been more cautious, with many choosing to wait until completion. The expectation that prices may not increase significantly has made long-term off-plan investments less appealing.
Flats remain the primary driver of the off-plan sector. In 2024, a flat was twice as likely to be sold off-plan as a house. Half of all completed flats last year were sold before they were built, compared to 26% of houses.
However, the share of off-plan flat sales has fallen from 73% in 2016 to 50% in 2024. This reflects a cooling investor market, reduced confidence in developers, and weaker price growth.
The share of houses sold off-plan has shown more stability, falling from 35% to 26% over the same period. The difference reflects the fact that houses are more commonly bought by owner-occupiers, whose decisions are less influenced by investment market conditions.
“Off-plan sales have held up in Northern England, which has seen the bulk of house price growth since 2016," comments Hamptons' lead analyst David Fell. "Investors from across the country, who are a key source of demand for off-plan sales, have continued to buy in these areas to lock in today’s prices for developments which often won’t be finished for years. The expectation that prices will be higher tomorrow remains one of the biggest drivers of off-plan sales for both investors and owner-occupiers."
He added, “But nationally, fewer new homes finding a buyer before they’re built has hit housebuilders hard. It is unlikely that the level of off-plan sales being agreed is sufficient for the government to get close to its 300,000 homes target, given that housebuilders rely on this forward funding to progress on site. While bulk deals with institutional investors have helped, they haven’t replaced demand from smaller landlords.
“Last November’s rise in the stamp duty surcharge on second homes from 3% to 5% hit many off-plan investor purchases that were completed last year but agreed and exchanged in 2023 or even 2022. The higher stamp duty surcharge has kept a cap on the number of investor purchases being agreed today, which will almost certainly mean fewer homes being built tomorrow.”
