"While brokers are clearly trying to navigate a complex economic landscape, expectations of a potential base rate cut in May present opportunities for landlords and property investors keen to expand their portfolio"
- Rob Stanton - Landbay
Three in five buy-to-let brokers are anticipating a 0.25% cut in the base rate tomorrow, according to a recent poll by Landbay.
The survey, which closed on April 22nd, questioned 119 mortgage brokers about their expectations for the base rate in May. The results show that 71% of brokers expect a reduction, with 61% predicting a 0.25% cut and 11% forecasting a 0.5% decrease. Meanwhile, 27% anticipate no change, and 2% predict a rate increase.
“Our findings reflect a cautious optimism among brokers and an expectation of a gradual easing of monetary policy – with a large majority anticipating a rate cut," explained Rob Stanton (pictured), sales and distribution director at Landbay.
He added, "While 61% think we’ll see rates fall 0.25%, a bullish 11% think we’ll see a 0.5% cut. That aligns with market expectations. A significant number of brokers expect no change or even a rise, which highlights some ongoing uncertainty in the market, driven, most probably, by persistent concerns over inflation.
“While brokers are clearly trying to navigate a complex economic landscape, expectations of a potential base rate cut in May present opportunities for landlords and property investors keen to expand their portfolio.”
Financial markets have priced in a 100% chance of a Bank of England interest rate cut in May. Initial data showed an 82% likelihood of a reduction from 4.5% to 4.25%, but this rose after comments from Megan Greene, a member of the MPC, who suggested that US trade tariffs could reduce UK inflation.
The LSEG data also predicts three Bank of England rate cuts by the end of the year.
A previous Landbay survey showed brokers expected only two more cuts in 2025, with 54% forecasting two cuts and 26% anticipating one. A small group of brokers (14%) expect three cuts, while 4% believe the base rate will remain at 4.5% until the end of the year.
