Top 5 Predictions For the 2014 UK housing market

Top 5 Predictions For the 2014 UK housing market

With the UK's economic recovery gaining momentum and widespread reports of an expanding housing bubble, what lies in wait for the property market in 2014? Adam Day, Director of online estate agent Hatched.co.uk, reveals his predictions for next year.

7% increase in property prices in 2014

12 months ago, Hatched.co.uk predicted that the market would rise by as much as 2% assuming the government did not intervene. In 2012, the average house price, according to Hatched.co.uk's completed sales in 2012 was just under £217,000. Throughout 2013, the average price of a house sold by Hatched.co.uk across England & Wales rose to £221,000, suggesting a rise of just less than 2% in 2013.

Although the government did intervene with the new Help to Buy scheme in April 2013 (phase one), this will not affect house prices until 2014 when people start to fully understand the scheme and, sales under the scheme start to complete.

Throughout 2014, we predict that house prices will rise at a much quicker rate than in 2013 and by the fastest rate since the housing crash. We believe that house prices could rise by as much as 7% across England & Wales, with double digit increases in London and the South East. If you are going to buy, this is the time to do it!
   

Start of a 'New Cycle'

The UK property market is at the start of a 'new cycle', with sustained growth of between 6% and 8% per year predicted for the next five to 10 years, possibly even up to 12 years.

In 2015, we expect interest rates to start to rise, which in turn will impact the housing market, but not to the same degree as the credit crunch in 2007/08. We will see more of a slowdown in price rises, which will be what the market requires at this point to prevent it from overheating. A long-term word of warning though, watch out for 2025/26 when we predict the market will crash again as this has been the rough cycle for decades now.

Until the government (and any subsequent government) gets to grips with speeding up planning permission, encouraging building on Brownfield sites, as well as some Greenfield sites and forcing builders to build houses and not flats, then the market will only go one way. And that is up.
     
Significant growth of online estate agents

Hatched.co.uk and the other top online estate agents have grown from literally nothing just eight years ago, to having a market share of between 2% and 5%. Hatched.co.uk's market share alone has grown by 585% since July 2007.

We predict that online estate agents will grow to between 10% and 15% of the market by the end of 2015, with further significant market share being gained over the next five years. Between 60% and 70% of all properties will be listed by online estate agents by 2020, wiping out over 7,000 high street estate agency offices across the UK.

To counter this growth, high street estate agents will start to move their operations 'upstairs' or begin to offer a menu of services, or 'lite' versions to try and compete with the new breed of online estate agents.
     
Private house sale sites on the rise

Recent government legislation changes to the Estate Agents Act and the Property Misdescriptions Act will result in more private house sale sites. However, we do not expect these sites to have a significant impact on the market as they still require access to the main property portals to find buyers. And, if they cannot find buyers, they do not have a business!

We also predict that some big names in retail may try to become intermediaries due to the new changes to the Estate Agents Act. However, as with private house sale sites, the key to success is access to the big property portals which, for now anyway, will not be granted. That being said, for enough money the portals would likely change their minds. If this happened, it would blow the whole property market wide open and accelerate the demise of the high street agent even quicker than predicted.  
     
New portals pose a serious threat

The much anticipated arrival of the Agents' Mutual site could have a profound effect on the dominant position of the key property portals. If Agents' Mutual's numbers are to be believed, then they are going to make a serious dent in one or other of the property portals subscriptions. If Agents' Mutual comes to fruition in 2014, we predict that Zoopla will be the biggest loser.

Source: Hatched.co.uk


Join our mailing list:

Leave a comment



Our Next Event

Complex Lending Roadshow March 2017

Complex Lending Roadshow March 2017

Bolton - 14/03/2017

Barnsley - 15/03/2017

Solihull - 16/03/2017

Watford - 17/03/2017

Register now

Latest Comments

Matthew Hollywood
Matthew Hollywood 07 Feb 2017

Matthew Hollywood - Director Mishon Mackay Land & New Homes - Brighton The shortage of New Homes is in part effected by the lack of land sales. Land sales are held back because there is a disparity between...

view article
CommercialTrust
CommercialTrust 30 Jan 2017

Hi Graham, Would be interesting to see the above figure calculated against an investment via a Lt Company /SPV structure and if the investor found themselves pushed in to the higher tax bracket. Mortgage...

view article
Tony Gimple
Tony Gimple 16 Jan 2017

HMOs do make great commercial sense, but do the area research first!

view article
OJoyce
OJoyce 30 Dec 2016

We can only hope this will bring the results we all want and strive for.

view article
Reality
Reality 21 Dec 2016

The changes to land tax were a shock to many when it was first announced by the Chancellor in 2015?s Autumn Statement. However, once the changes came into place and the full details were digested, it?s...

view article
akbar ali dayala
akbar ali dayala 20 Dec 2016

I am a landlord and director of an online letting agents at the moment we charge tenants minimal fees and landlord also meaning we can get best deals for tenants all around if the ban comes in it...

view article
milessgabriel
milessgabriel 05 Dec 2016

Useful article

view article
Spencer Fortag
Spencer Fortag 30 Nov 2016

I am glad that someone listened to me!

view article
Tony Gimple
Tony Gimple 27 Nov 2016

It's not just the lack of estate agency advice that's costing landlords money; most are getting seriously bad advice from their accountants resulting in tax bills far higher than they need to be. Likewise,...

view article
Sally Walmsley
Sally Walmsley 18 Nov 2016

The RLA stands by its sell-off statistics. While we welcome the feedback from Mr Jagota and are delighted to hear how well things are going for landlords in the north east, we would like to make it clear...

view article
Sheryl87
Sheryl87 18 Nov 2016

The high employment levels and the vibrant economy has led to ever-increasing demand for rental properties, especially from professionals relocations from other cities. This has led to more experts teaming...

view article
Sheryl87
Sheryl87 18 Nov 2016

Renting out your house can be risky business. It's good to think about residential landlords insurance. Standard cover includes buildings cover and cover for loss of rent following damage to a property...

view article

Related stories

More articles from Property