Subdued outlook for price growth

Subdued outlook for price growth

The latest data from Knight Frank has found that while the UK economy and housing market have held up far better than expected following the Brexit vote, the outlook for both remains uncertain.

According to the report, both the London and wider UK housing markets have outperformed expectations following the EU Referendum. However, price growth in 2017 is expected to be notably slower than this year, in all regions.
 
Between 2017 and 2021 UK house prices are forecast to rise by 14.2% cumulatively
 
Both the London and wider UK housing markets outperformed expectations following the referendum. After a sharp dip in confidence just after the vote, conditions have improved into the autumn. On most measures the mainstream UK market continues to perform strongly – with annual price growth likely to end this year at 5%.
 
Most regional markets have seen positive growth, the exception being Wales. The ripple of price growth from London continued in 2016 and we expect the end of year position to be that the East of England and the South East will both see stronger growth than that in Greater London.


Looking into next year, Knight Frank believes that the slowdown in prices which has been evident in central London over the past 12-months will spread to the wider region, with Greater London prices down marginally in 2017. This slowdown in the capital will likely be experienced across the rest of the country with price growth down notably on 2016 levels.
 
The main drivers for weaker market performance relate to economic uncertainty surrounding the Brexit process, which they believe will impact negatively on consumer confidence in the run up to and just after the serving of the formal “notice to quit” the EU. In addition the impact of reforms to the taxation of landlords will reduce demand from investors which will limit upwards pressure on prices.
 
Looking at the prime London market, Knight Frank suggests that a 7% fall in prices across the western part of central London in 2016 means that we are close to the bottom in terms of price adjustment in this market. Although there could be some further adjustment downwards in prime outer London markets through 2017.
 
For rental markets – it has been a mixed year for landlords in central London, demand from tenants has been strong, but this has been offset by a strong supply of rental properties. In our view there is a risk of further rental falls next year but not on the scale of the adjustments seen this year. The wider UK rental market looks relatively positive with modest rental growth expected. Rents could rise further if landlords begin to sell properties in an effort to offset to the impact of tax rises.

Join our mailing list:

Leave a comment



Latest Comments

Tony Gimple
Tony Gimple 09 Dec 2017

Linking professionalism to limited company borrowing is a flawed concept. Despite S24 etc., limited companies are the most tax inefficient way of running a property business and leave borrowers seriously...

view article
Evelyn Attwood
Evelyn Attwood 01 Dec 2017

It's normal. If you plan to buy a house in one of the most beautiful spots in the country you should pay a high price.

view article
Evelyn Attwood
Evelyn Attwood 01 Dec 2017

I think that the situation will be the same at December.

view article
Scott Garnet
Scott Garnet 06 Nov 2017

If you have a patio or a porch it is important to make sure that any connecting doors are secured. Good advice for sliding glass doors is replacing the panels with storm resistant glass and getting heavier...

view article
richardrawlings
richardrawlings 01 Nov 2017

What has not been mentioned here is the effect of not only higher interest payments, but also that these payments are less likely to be offsettable as a business cost due to the scaling back of mortgage...

view article
Kelvin Lloyd
Kelvin Lloyd 09 Oct 2017

IT is up, to the Planners. If they will only give permission for bungalows on certain (suitable) sites, they will be built.

view article
maggie swift
maggie swift 09 Oct 2017

It's just the beginning of the shocking rise.

view article
maggie swift
maggie swift 09 Oct 2017

I have recently read that the bungalows can provide social housing for elderly residents in London.

view article
zoe glover
zoe glover 05 Oct 2017

Update! Worst company I have ever dealt with. Undervalued a Cambridge property by over 100k, wont take on any evidence of valuation including a RICS valuation done 3 years ago for the very same value...

view article
Paul Edwards
Paul Edwards 27 Sep 2017

Its nonsense articles such as this that make it harder to get clients to realise just how difficult the market is out there. When you see Rightmove and there are more 'price reduced' then 'new' most days...

view article
Tom Allen
Tom Allen 20 Sep 2017

Absolutely agree with you!

view article
RyanGeo
RyanGeo 18 Sep 2017

A sharp correction would be a less dramatic expression to use. That is already underway in certain sectors in Reading where I practice as Chartered Surveyor

view article

Related stories

More articles from Property