How have house prices changed in the year since the EU referendum?

How have house prices changed in the year since the EU referendum?
What is clear is that those areas that voted to remain were home to a much higher average house price in general

The latest research by online estate agent, eMoov.co.uk, looks at house price growth performance across the UK since Britain voted to leave the EU back in June of last year.

According to their findings, since June of last year, the average house price in the UK as increased from £212,950 to £220,094, an increase of 3.35%.

When dividing the nation by the majority vote for each of the 12 regions, it is the regions with a majority Leave vote that have seen the biggest increase, up 2.27% from an average of £191,611 to £195,957 today. The average house price across the Remain regions was higher back in June at £247,471 but has only seen an increase of 1.36% since, now reaching £250,840.

The top five regions to see the largest price growth since the Brexit vote are all home to a majority Leave vote with the East Midlands seeing the most substantial increase of 3.84%, followed by the West Midlands (3.62%), the East of England (3.46%), the North West (2.92%) and Yorkshire and the Humber (2.92%).

When looking at all the areas to vote across the UK individually rather than grouped by region, the average house price increase across the Leave majorities increases to 3.32%, again higher than the 2.08% increase across areas to have voted to Remain.
When splitting each region individually by the areas within them that voted to Leave and those that voted to Remain, all but four have seen higher house price growth across the areas that won the overall vote.

In London, the majority vote was to Remain; however, house price growth across the boroughs that voted Leave has increased by 11.10% compared to just 1.90% across boroughs that were home to a majority Remain vote.

The North East, North West, East Midlands and Wales were all home to a majority Leave vote as a region. However, the areas within these regions that voted to remain have seen higher price growth than the areas that voted to leave.

London

Since the Brexit vote house prices across London have increased by 1.12% on average reaching £482.779. As already mentioned, house price growth across the five majority leave boroughs of Sutton, Hillingdon, Bexley, Havering and Barking and Dagenham since June’s vote is 11.10%, an increase in the average house price from £343,122 to £381,218.

Across the remaining boroughs, the average house price increased by just 1.90% on average, from £561,091 to £571,773. However, the top five boroughs where house price growth is concerned all voted to remain in the EU. These are Kensington and Chelsea (11.10%), Hackney (9.12%), Hammersmith and Fulham (7.47%), Enfield (6.08%) and Harrow (5.92%).


South East

Since June the South East as a whole has seen the average house price climb from £310,525 to £315,334, an increase of 1.55%.
Across the South East region, the average house price across the areas to vote to leave the EU was again lower than those that chose to remain, £289,290 in June compared to £399,641. Since then it has increased by 2.85% to £297,533 compared to just 2.28% in remain areas.

Canterbury, a Leave majority, has seen the largest increase at 8.89%, closely followed by Chiltern (8.05%) where the majority voted to remain. Epsom and Ewell (remain) has seen the largest decrease in the region, down -4.48%.

East of England

In the East of England, the average house price climbed by 3.46% since June, the highest growth rate behind the East and West Midlands.

The difference in house growth between leave and remain areas in the East of England is the largest in the UK, second only to London. Across the areas of the region that voted to stay the average house price increased by just 1.03% since June to £369,988. Across those that voted to leave the increase was much higher, up 4.99% to £288,836.

The top 25 areas in the East of England for house price growth all voted to leave the EU, with Forest Heath seeing the largest increase, up 10.07%, although Welwyn Hatfield (leave) also saw the biggest decrease in the region down -1.06%. St Albans, Cambridge and North Hertfordshire (remain) also saw either a decline or flat rate of price growth.

South West

The South West region has seen the average house price increase by 2.73% since June, now at £243,215.
Although the areas of the South West that voted to leave have seen higher price growth on average, it is far more marginal at 4% compared to 3.93% on average across remain majority areas.

Exeter (remain) has seen the largest rate of price growth at 7.87%, although West Dorset, Christchurch and Sedgemoor (leave) have also seen price growth exceed 7% since June 2016. South Hams (Remain) saw the largest decrease, down -2.61%.

East Midlands & West Midlands

The East and West Midlands regions have both seen the largest increase in house price growth since the Brexit vote, up 3.84% and 3.62% respectively.

Across the East Midlands, it is the Remain areas that have enjoyed the largest rate of growth, up 5.67% on average to just 4.34% across the Leave majorities.

However, the top 12 areas for price growth are all Leave majorities with Rutland enjoying the largest increase up 11.24%.
In contrast, the West Midlands region has seen an average increase of 3.25% in house prices across Leave majorities to just 2.37% across Remain majorities.

Again, the top 21 largest increases are all areas to have voted to leave the EU, with Sandwell (6.71%) seeing the biggest increase.
Yorkshire & the Humber

Since the Brexit vote, price growth in the Yorkshire and Humber region has remained stable, and at 2.92% it places as the joint third highest along with the North West.

Within Yorkshire and the Humber, it is the leave majority areas once again to have seen the largest rate of price growth. Since June the average house prices in these areas has grown by 2.05% to £153,927 today. The average house price in Remain areas has increased by 1.98% to £228,874 today.

The top three largest increases were Scarborough (7.38%), Selby (4.22%) and Kingston upon Hull (4.14%), all of which voted to leave the EU.

North East & North West

In the North, the North West property market has performed much better than the North East since Britain voted to leave the EU. Since June 2016, prices in the region have increased by 2.92%, the joint third largest increase in the UK with Yorkshire and the Humber. But in the North East, they have fallen by -2.71%, the only region of the UK to have seen a drop in this time frame.

Across both regions, the areas to have voted to remain in the EU have fared better, with the average price increasing by 3.84% in the North West compared to just 1.67% across the regions Leave majorities.

Knowsley (Leave) is the only area of the North West region to see growth exceed 7% since June 2016 at 7.5%.
In the North East both sides have seen a decrease but those that voted Leave have seen their property depreciate by -1.06%, compared to just -0.11% across Remain majorities.

That said, the only four areas to have seen some positive movement all voted Leave, with North Tyneside fairing the best (0.93%) followed by Northumberland (0.59%), Stockton-on-Tees (0.42%)and Middlesbrough (0.37%).

Wales

In addition to Brexit uncertainty the Welsh property market has had a particularly tough time over the last year or two and, as a result, growth in the region since June 2016 is up just 0.51% - the lowest other than the North East.

Despite the nation voting to leave the EU, house prices in the Leave majority areas are up just 1.85% compared to 3.46% on average in areas that voted to remain in the EU.

The Isle of Anglesey (Leave) has enjoyed the largest increase though – up 11.54%, the only area to reach double figures.

Scotland & Northern Ireland

Scotland as a nation voted unanimously to remain within the EU and has ticked along where house price growth is concerned sitting mid-table with an increase of 2.84%.

Northern Ireland also voted to stay in the EU, but the country’s property market has not fared as well as Scotland since, with an increase of just 0.61%.

However, across the areas to have voted to remain prices have increased from £118,705 to £121,297, an increase of 2.18%. Interestingly, the areas of Northern Ireland that voted to leave were home to a higher average house price than those that chose to remain, the only areas of the UK where this is the case. However, since the vote, they fell from £127,773 to £126,949, a drop of -0.65%.

Russell Quirk, founder and CEO of eMoov.co.uk, commented: “We thought it would be interesting to run this research from a neutral standpoint to assess what impact, if any, the EU Referendum has had on the UK property market.

What is clear is that those areas that voted to remain were home to a much higher average house price in general and it would seem that it is this upper end of the market in each region that has seen price growth slow the most.

Encouraging news for those at the other end of the ladder, who seem to be benefitting the most since the decision to leave. What it certainly does highlight is that there are still swathes of the market, even in London, where the UK property market remains immune to any external political uncertainty, and this should stand us in good stead as we exit the EU and with the recent general election in mind.”

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