House price sentiment slips in May according to new report

House price sentiment slips in May according to new report
The UK needs to boost the supply of homes where they are most needed, and this is one area where the Government could make progress, even if other hurdles remain for a minority government

The latest research and housing market analysis from Knight Frank takes a look at what has been happening in the wake of the recent political developments in the UK.

The unexpected UK election result has led to a week of political negotiations as the Conservatives try to form a government. While this has prompted increased levels of uncertainty, there was a relatively modest reaction in the financial markets to the result amid hopes in the city that the country could be heading for a slightly “softer” Brexit. As yet, there is still little in the way of detail about what the Brexit deal will look like, but this will likely become clearer as negotiations get underway on Monday 19th June.

Yet the political situation is being exacerbated somewhat by recent economic data indicating that inflation is rising and that wage growth is lagging. This week, the news that three members of the Bank of England's rate-setting committee, which is currently made up of eight people instead of nine as a replacement for Charlotte Hogg is appointed, voted for a rate rise, caused a sharp rise in sterling.

Economists had not been expecting an interest rate rise until early 2019, given the relatively benign inflation rate environment
up until now. Policymakers are also keen to maintain a stable rate environment as the country prepares to leave the EU.

However, the recent inflation data, and the tone of the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee's meeting, indicate that modest rate rises may be on the cards earlier than this.

The Bank of England will also be watching the US closely – where the Federal Reserve has raised the base rate for the fourth time since 2015, taking it to 1.25%


The election also forced a ministerial re-shuffle. In terms of housing, Gavin Barwell, the former housing minister, lost his Parliamentary seat. However, he has been appointed as the chief of staff in Number 10, which could indicate that housing is unlikely to fall off the agenda. His replacement, Alok Sharma, comes from a financial background and sits on the Treasury Select Committee. In terms of the Housing White Paper, which was published earlier this year, there are still hopes that more detail will be announced in the Autumn Budget as Sajid Javid remains the Sectretary of State for DCLG and is in a position to push this agenda.

The UK needs to boost the supply of homes where they are most needed, and this is one area where the Government could make progress, even if other hurdles remain for a minority government.

Meanwhile, house price growth continued to slow in May, although the market remains highly localised. Affordability remains a key concern in many markets, and this, coupled with increased economic uncertainty, is weighing on price growth. However, at the same time, ultra-low mortgage rates and a lack of supply are putting a floor under pricing.

Prime market update

Average prices in prime central London were flat in May, and are down 6.6% on the year. The rate of price declines has
eased in recent months – on a quarterly basis, average values slipped by 0.2% in the three months to the end of May, compared to a 4.1% decline in the final quarter of last year.

In the country market, the latest data on prime house prices showed values were broadly flat in the year to the end of March, with outperformance in many key urban locations. In Scotland, prime values across the country dipped by1.2% in the year to March, while in Edinburgh, prime prices were up 3%.

Rental market

Average rents across Great Britain rose by 1.8% in May, with a 1.9% increase in England. UK rents have been in positive territory since the ONS started its index in 2011.

Rents in the prime central London market, with the Knight Frank index reflecting rents for existing prime and super-prime homes, are down 4.8% on the year, although this marks an easing of the decline compared to a 5.2% fall in the year to December last year.

The size of the private rented sector (PRS) across the UK is expected to continue to grow, with Knight Frank forecasting that around 5.8 million households will be living in the PRS by the early 2020s. This, and other emerging trends in the PRS, is examined in more detail in our latest PRS research.

Gráinne Gilmore, Head of UK Residential Research, Knight Frank, says; "With the appointment of the tenth housing minister in ten years, housing needs to remain close to the top of the agenda, so policies can be implemented to boost the supply of homes where they are most needed.”

Join our mailing list:

Leave a comment



Latest Comments

Christian Donovan
Christian Donovan 18 Aug 2017

The write-down on house values, combined with the fall in the GBP saddled the fund?s property portfolio with a 1.4% loss in the second quarter. The shocking amount of $240 million.

view article
Samantha Goodman
Samantha Goodman 11 Aug 2017

Interesting point of view.

view article
Samantha Goodman
Samantha Goodman 11 Aug 2017

It depends on the people, some older adults decide to make a long-distance move in order to live closer to their children or settle in a place with a lower cost of living.

view article
brandonlee10
brandonlee10 24 Jul 2017

The financial ramifications of the triggering of Article 50, the starting gun for Britain's departure from the EU, are far from clear. Buyers will be most cautious in London, given that buying a home in...

view article
IrisJ.
IrisJ. 19 Jul 2017

Great advice, but may I also add that when buying an already built home, make sure you do all of the proper inspections. Most importantly pest inspection because people tend to get surprised when they

view article
IrisJ.
IrisJ. 17 Jul 2017

The third point is, in my opinion, the most important one. People have become too inconsiderate and careless when it comes to rented properties. If a landlord wants to protect their property, regular visits...

view article
cornishalan
cornishalan 10 Jul 2017

Added to the cost of purchasing these village properties are the above average maintenance costs. Particularly where the property is a listed building or requires specialist building skills such as thatching...

view article
Jo Mullett
Jo Mullett 07 Jul 2017

Here in Swansea, known as the Japanese knotweed capital of the UK, it never fails to amazes me that people have no idea of the potential problems this invasive non-native plant can cause when buying or...

view article
NathanG
NathanG 05 Jul 2017

McDonalds, for example, have been purchasing their real estate on prime locations for years. If something happens to the company they'll have invaluable assets that will be able to save them. We might

view article
Jonah
Jonah 04 Jul 2017

Graham: surprised to see you cite the "extra tax liability" as capping out at ?560. It doesn't - the extra tax is exponential, as it is levied on the income (i.e the inflating level of rental income you...

view article
Dianne Griffen
Dianne Griffen 29 Jun 2017

Be very wary of anyone bringing you deals that they have ?found? and want to ?sell on to you? or ?joint venture? with you on ? you need a proper legal contract for this, involve a RICs surveyor to confirm...

view article
jason hadzikostas
jason hadzikostas 28 Jun 2017

The most important thing is a budget. Students have to manage their spendings in food, house maintenance, books and many other things. According to me, student Studios are the perfect option for them as...

view article

Related stories

More articles from Property