Has political uncertainty had an imapct on property sales?

Has political uncertainty had an imapct on property sales?

Since Brexit, the number of residential property sales completed in England and Wales has reached 901,129 - a decline of 22% compared to the total number of sales completed over the same period leading up to the Brexit vote, with a drop of 18% in the average monthly number of completions across both periods.

However, according to new research by eMoov.co.uk, the average price of the total number of properties sold has increased in the 15 months since Brexit, up 7% from £213,444 to £228,968. This suggests that those at the top end of the ladder were less concerned about the market climate, and therefore, the transactions that did complete were in a higher price bracket.  
 
In the 15 months leading up to the Brexit vote, there was an average of 77,260 property transactions a month across England and Wales with an average sold price of £213,444. However, in the time between Britain voting to leave the EU and the triggering of Article 50, this slumped to 63,159 transactions a month on average – a drop of 18%.
 
During the same period, the average sold price for a property completing increased by 6% to £226,408, despite slower market conditions.
 
Britain’s sign of intent in triggering Article 50 restored a brief air of stability to the property market in England and Wales, with the average monthly volume of residential property sales completed increasing by 6% in April and May of 2017, to 66,939 a month on average, with the average sold prices also increasing by 2%.
 
Nevertheless, the call of a snap election and the disastrous outcome for the Conservatives once again caused the market to stall, with the average monthly volume of residential property sales having since plummeted 26% to just 49,706.
 
Despite this, the average price of properties sold at this time again increased by 2%.

Event

Date Range

Total Transactions

Change (%)

Average Price Paid

Change (%)

15 Months Pre-Brexit

Apr 2015-Jun 2016

1,158,898

£213,444

15 Months Post-Brexit

Jul 2016-Sept 2017

901,129

-22%

£228,968

7%


Russell Quirk, founder and CEO of eMoov.co.uk, commented: “This research shows that where uncertainty in the market is concerned, it is the snap election that has had the most detrimental impact on property sales.
 
Events such as the referendum and snap election have had an almost immediate influence on the number of buyers and sellers committing to a sale in the subsequent months, although it would seem more confidence at the higher end of the market has continued to stimulate price growth.  
 
The market is certainly resilient, and although a recovery in sales volumes is yet to be seen, there are signs that the market is beginning to regain momentum.  
 
No doubt any confirmation on the details of our divorce bill will be the next significant marker and will see a movement in transaction volume and price growth, but it remains to be seen in which direction it will be.”

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