25% rise in house prices predicted

According to the latest data from RICS, house prices are expected to rise by 4.5% per annum over the next five years, resulting in a cumulative increase of around 25% by 2020.

Related topics:  Property
Warren Lewis
12th November 2015
house coin stack

The report found that house prices have risen across all parts of the UK for the third consecutive month and during October, 49% more chartered surveyors saw house prices rise across the UK, compared to 44% in September.  

As prices rise in all areas of the UK, East Anglia has consistently seen the fastest rises over the last three months and 91% more chartered surveyors reported seeing a rise rather than fall in prices in October.

In contrast, 25% more chartered surveyors saw prices rise in London over the last three months, with only 5% more expecting a rise in prices in the capital over the next three months – this is the lowest reading across the UK over this time period. However the twelve month view for the capital is still relatively strong.

Contributing to the rise in prices across the country, demand from potential buyers grew across the UK in October with 12% more respondents seeing a rise in new buyer enquiries. Demand continues to considerably outpace supply and the number of new instructions has decreased for the ninth month in succession, with 10% more chartered surveyors reporting a fall.

The supply of new stock to the UK market has been in decline since the middle of 2014, with the number of new instructions only increasing in one of these months.

Despite the lack of new stock to the market, sales activity is relatively healthy and following a small pick-up in agreed sales in September, activity was little changed this month across the UK. This chimes with HMRC transactions data, which continues to see the number of sales rising consistently over the year.

Simon Rubinsohn, RICS Chief Economist, said: "It is hard to get away from the issue of supply when it comes to the current state of the housing market. The legacy of the drop in new build following the onset of the global financial crisis is now really hitting home, with both the sales and letting markets continuing to show demand outstripping supply on a month by month basis.

If the five year projections from members regarding the outlook for both prices and rents is anything to go by, property is set to become even more unaffordable going forward making the Government’s focus of boosting the delivery of new homes absolutely critical."

Andy Sommerville, Director of Search Acumen, comments: “It’s looking likely that the Chancellor will use his Autumn Statement later this month to announce the conversion of old Victorian prisons into homes for prospective buyers looking to get on the housing ladder. [1]  With a quarter more chartered surveyors seeing a rise in the capital’s house prices, and the state of London’s housing market rippling out across the South East, prisons at Reading, Wandsworth and Pentonville would be a great place to start.

Although the government is making progress in getting these old public sector sites ready for housebuilding, the demand for lettings and houses is outstripping supply by a mile. Today’s figures are another clear sign that there needs to be a dramatic increase in housing supply, and an almost revolutionary shift in planning reform to appease a very real shortage. A successful sales and lettings market needs a healthy supply of new build homes.”

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