Halifax: Supply and demand imbalance fuels 9.7% house price growth

Halifax: Supply and demand imbalance fuels 9.7% house price growth

Data from the latest Halifax house price index has found that in the three months to February, the average price of a home was 9.7% higher than in the same three months a year earlier. The annual rate remains within the 8%-10% range where it has been for nearly the entire period since the start of 2015.

House prices during December-February were reported to be 3.0% higher than in the preceding three months.

House prices decreased by 1.4% between January and February. This offset much of January’s 1.7% rise. Monthly house price changes can be volatile. The quarter on quarter change is a more reliable indicator of the underlying trend.

Increase in areas where homes have risen more in value than owner’s total earnings. The increase in average house prices has exceeded total average employee’s net earnings in more than a quarter of local authority districts across the UK – 108 out of 380 (28%) – over the past two years, according to the report.

The data also highlighted that mortgage approvals were higher. The volume of mortgage approvals for house purchases – a leading indicator of completed house sales – increased by 5% between December and January. Approvals, at 74,600, were the highest since January 2014.  (Source: Bank of England, seasonally-adjusted figures)

Supply remains very low but signs of slight improvement. New instructions by home sellers increased in January for the second consecutive month. This contributed to the first rise in the stock of secondhand properties for sale for ten months.


Martin Ellis, Halifax housing economist, said: "House prices in the three months to February were 3.0% higher than in the previous three months whilst the annual rate remained unchanged at 9.7%.

Prices continue to rise at a robust pace driven by a significant imbalance between supply and demand. Whilst this position is likely to continue over the coming months, there are some tentative signs that the supply situation may be beginning to improve. Instructions for secondhand properties coming up for sale have increased in the past two months and the level of housebuilding increased significantly in 2015. Further ahead, increasing affordability issues, as house price increases continue to exceed wage growth, are likely to curb housing demand and cause price growth to ease.”

Russell Quirk, founder and CEO of eMoov.co.uk, commented: “There are slight signs that the UK market is cooling, with the February wobble seeing a decrease of 1.4% since January. However, this is only marginal as since November prices are up by another 3% and nearly 10% in the last year. Demand is always an influential factor where an increase in house prices is concerned, so the impending stamp duty changes due in April have no doubt helped to keep the UK market buoyant.

There has been a flurry of buyers keen to secure that second home or buy to let investment before the April deadline, as well as an increase in the stock available, due to savvy buyers looking to cash in and obtain a higher price than usual during this period of high demand.

We expect once the stamp duty dust has settled the market will cool slightly, but whilst UK and foreign buyers are still fuelling this increase, the issue of affordability will continue to take a back seat, rather than helping to restrain a continually inflating market.”

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Tony Gimple
Tony Gimple 09 Dec 2017

Linking professionalism to limited company borrowing is a flawed concept. Despite S24 etc., limited companies are the most tax inefficient way of running a property business and leave borrowers seriously...

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Evelyn Attwood
Evelyn Attwood 01 Dec 2017

It's normal. If you plan to buy a house in one of the most beautiful spots in the country you should pay a high price.

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Evelyn Attwood
Evelyn Attwood 01 Dec 2017

I think that the situation will be the same at December.

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Scott Garnet
Scott Garnet 06 Nov 2017

If you have a patio or a porch it is important to make sure that any connecting doors are secured. Good advice for sliding glass doors is replacing the panels with storm resistant glass and getting heavier...

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richardrawlings
richardrawlings 01 Nov 2017

What has not been mentioned here is the effect of not only higher interest payments, but also that these payments are less likely to be offsettable as a business cost due to the scaling back of mortgage...

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Kelvin Lloyd
Kelvin Lloyd 09 Oct 2017

IT is up, to the Planners. If they will only give permission for bungalows on certain (suitable) sites, they will be built.

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maggie swift
maggie swift 09 Oct 2017

It's just the beginning of the shocking rise.

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maggie swift
maggie swift 09 Oct 2017

I have recently read that the bungalows can provide social housing for elderly residents in London.

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zoe glover
zoe glover 05 Oct 2017

Update! Worst company I have ever dealt with. Undervalued a Cambridge property by over 100k, wont take on any evidence of valuation including a RICS valuation done 3 years ago for the very same value...

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Paul Edwards
Paul Edwards 27 Sep 2017

Its nonsense articles such as this that make it harder to get clients to realise just how difficult the market is out there. When you see Rightmove and there are more 'price reduced' then 'new' most days...

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Tom Allen
Tom Allen 20 Sep 2017

Absolutely agree with you!

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RyanGeo
RyanGeo 18 Sep 2017

A sharp correction would be a less dramatic expression to use. That is already underway in certain sectors in Reading where I practice as Chartered Surveyor

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