"You can’t judge a market by its topline statistics. Instead, you have to dive down into the local market data to discover that price performance in certain parts of Britain could be far from flat as we move through the year"
- Jason Ferrando - easyMoney
New research from easyMoney analysed the recent performance of the British housing market based on the latest available Land Registry data, calculating the average monthly rate of growth seen since interest rates were held at 5.25% in September of last year.
This average monthly change was then used to forecast how the market could perform over the remainder of the year, with homebuyers yet to see a reduction in interest rates materialise this year.
National picture
The analysis shows that since the base rate was held at 5.25% for the first time in September 2023, the average house price across Britain has declined at an average rate of -0.3% per month.
If this trend continues through to the end of the year, the average house price in Britain could fall by -2.6%, or -£7,501, from £283,428 today to £275,927 in December 2024.
Just two regions forecast for positive growth
A regional analysis reveals that only two regions of Britain are expected to see positive price growth by December.
In the North West, the past six months has seen average monthly price growth of +0.4%. If this continues through to the end of the year, prices will grow by +4.3%reaching a regional average price of £330,593.
Meanwhile, the North East has seen prices grow by a monthly average of +0.2% over the last six months. If this continues through to December 2024, prices will increase by +2.4% to reach an average of £164,235.
Prices in all other regions are predicted to fall, with the West Midlands (-7.8%), London (-6.8%), and Yorkshire & Humber (-6.3%) experiencing the biggest drops.
These forecasts from easyMoney mirror the wider industry consensus that the British housing market will remain somewhat subdued in 2024.
10 local authorities forecast for growth of 14%+
However, further analysis by easyMoney at local authority level* has revealed that some of Britain’s local markets could be destined to buck the national trend, with 10 locations forecast for growth in excess of +14%.
Over the past six months, house prices in Derbyshire’s Amber Valley district have increased by 2.4% per month, putting the area on track for growth of +26.5% by the end of the year.
Darlington has seen an average monthly rate of growth of 2.1% since interest rates were held, suggesting house prices in the area could climb by a further +23.7% by the end of this year.
Also set for +14% price growth or more are Torfaen (+18.8%), West Devon (+16.6%), Babergh (+15.7%), Rossendale (+14.8%), North West Leicestershire (+14.8%), Greenwich (+14.5%), Hackney (+14.2%), and Chorley (+14%).
The Analysis by easyMoney also shows that a further 102 local authorities could see positive house price movement in 2024.
Jason Ferrando, CEO of easyMoney says: “After such consistent upward growth, followed by a period of stagnation, it looks to be a far more settled year for the housing market, with property values expected to remain largely flat in 2024.
“But as is so often the case, you can’t judge a market by its topline statistics. Instead, you have to dive down into the local market data to discover that price performance in certain parts of Britain could be far from flat as we move through the year.
“For anyone who is looking to invest in property this year, it’s useful to know which parts of the country are bucking the national trend. Although it can be far less time consuming to opt for an investment vehicle where market experts have already done the hard work in identifying these up and coming investment hotspots.”
