Suppressed demand sees residential property transactions rise 15.6% in August

The latest data released by HMRC has revealed that the seasonally adjusted estimate of residential property transactions in August this year is 81,280 - 16.3% lower than August 2019 but 15.6% higher than in July.

Related topics:  Property
Property Reporter
22nd September 2020
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According to the figures, the provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate is 84,910 - 23.9% down year-on-year, but up 6.1% on the month.

Anna Clare Harper, CEO of asset manager SPI Capital and author of Strategic Property Investing, says:

"The increase in transactions reflects the release of pent-up demand and supply, the impact of the temporary stamp duty change, and the wide availability of capital, with low-interest rates and effective quantitative easing via government stimulus.

"It’s worth noting that transactions were significantly down (-23.9%) compared with August 2019 data, with year to date transactions down from c. 500,000 to c. 300,000.

"The data is buoyed up by homebuyers seeking houses to live in, for the most part. By contrast, investor sentiment is - for the time being - more measured. Institutional investors in particular tend to be nervous about the future in times of change, leaving the way open for private investors to snap up deals.

"What happens next will be defined by two major factors: economic confidence and policy. With the prospect of further change to come, for example, in the form of Capital Gains Tax reform and through Brexit, it is an exciting time in the property market. For investors, it is becoming increasingly important to understand both the bigger picture and local variations.'

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, adds:

"Transactions are a better barometer of market health than more volatile house prices. Although a little historic, and there is a delay between the point when the sale is agreed and completion, these numbers still demonstrate considerable resilience when we were emerging from the previous lockdown and before the stamp duty holiday could have much impact.

"On the ground, we have noticed no sign of sales collapsing, renegotiating on deals or price reductions in the past few days - more of a determination to carry on."

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