Have we overestimated how hard Brexit has hit house prices?

The firm asked 2,000 Brits to estimate house prices in different UK cities, including their own, and how much they believe they have changed since the EU referendum.

House prices have increased, albeit slower than in previous periods, in every major UK city since the vote in June 2016, with an average growth of over £20,000. Some places, in fact, have even experienced far greater increases, like Edinburgh, where the average property value is now £46,000 higher than it was three years ago.

The study revealed that Brits are largely unaware of this trend. Three-quarters (74%) of Brits underestimate this rise in house prices, with nearly a third (32%) believing that house prices have actually fallen in their area since the vote. More than one in eight (13%) think that they have decreased by over £10,000.

Across the country, most Brits overestimate how hard Brexit has hit their city’s house prices.

In 14 of the 15 cities studied, residents believe that their local house prices have increased by less than they actually have. Only Londoners overestimate the rise in their local property prices, believing that they have increased by nearly £12,000 since 2016, when in fact they have only grown by £4,600.

The research also explored Brits’ general knowledge of house prices around the UK. Respondents were asked to estimate the average property value in major cities and it was revealed that Brits are least aware of house prices in London, guessing that the average is over £160,000 less than the actual figure of £472,000.

Brits are also unaware of how cheaply properties sell for in Glasgow, Belfast and Nottingham, with the average guesses being over £60,000 higher than reality.

Surprisingly, even residents of these cities don’t realise how low house prices are in their areas, with Glaswegians the most inaccurate at guessing their own statistic (£84,000 too high), followed by the people of Nottingham (£56,000 too high). In fact, 60% of cities fare worse than the national average when it comes to guessing house prices in their own region.

Ross Counsell, director at Good Move, said: “With so much uncertainty around Brexit, it’s perhaps unsurprising that many Brits overestimate its effect on UK house prices. While house price growth has been slowing, it appears Brexit hasn’t had the scale of impact that many believe or assume that it has.

Our research has highlighted that many Brits are unaware of house prices in their area too. It is a good idea to keep tabs on local property values, so you are well-informed if you ever decide to move house.”