London to see further house price growth of 5% in 2014

David Pollock, Managing Director of leading London estate agent Greene & Co, examines the outlook for the London property market:

Related topics:  Property
Warren Lewis
23rd December 2013
Property
“In 2013 the London property market has broken all the records, with the latest government figures showing 12% annual house price rises in the Capital, equating to a growth of £49,079. I predict this upward trend will continue into 2014, with prices rising by a further 5%.

“The house price growth we have seen across the Capital has been fuelled by overwhelming levels of demand and intense competition for a relatively limited supply of properties. This growth has impacted affordability for first time buyers, but we have also seen a number of second steppers unable to move up the ladder because of the sharp price rises.

“Areas such as Kensal Rise, Kentish Town and Finsbury Park are expected to see pronounced growth of up to 6% next year. Neighbouring the established postcodes of Notting Hill, Hampstead, and Islington respectively, these locations are experiencing a great deal of regeneration and also offer excellent amenities, schools and transport links - ideal for young professionals and growing families.

“With rumours flying around about a possible introduction of a mansion tax as we go into the New Year, there is uncertainty in the £2million+ market. This market has already been hit by stamp duty rises this year and also recent capital gains taxes on overseas sellers, so the rumours will impact the confidence of both buyers and sellers in 2014.

“Sales transaction levels have increased considerably this year with improved mortgage availability and the introduction of government schemes, such as Help to Buy. The high levels of activity have been hampered by a shortage of qualified surveyors and as a result valuations are being delayed by up to a month. In this competitive market any delays can result in the sale falling through, so it is imperative that this shortage is addressed in the New Year.

“Changes to the Funding for Lending Scheme, which come into effect next February, will prevent banks from using the scheme for mortgage lending, in a drive to move their focus to SME lending. This move could see the variety of attractive mortgage products currently available reduce and make it more difficult for buyers to secured low LTV mortgages.

“In a market where gazumping and sealed bids are becoming more common, new homes are an attractive option for many buyers. Yet, housebuilding levels need to increase considerably to placate demand and provide enough homes for the Capital’s growing population. In 2014 the Government must amend the planning process, ensuring permission for new sites is granted swiftly to reach Mayor of London’s goal of building 42,000 homes a year.

“The rental market is performing well, with tenant demand strong and a constant, healthy supply of new rental stock. Rents are expected to stabilise or dip marginally next year as the increase in supply gives tenants greater choice and creates a shift in power in favour of the tenant, which is likely to continue into 2014.”
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