"It's clear that the ‘winners’ of the EU referendum are feeling much more confident about the future of the property market than those who voted Remain"
The figures demonstrate the ‘psychology of Brexit’ and its impact on property market confidence for the first time. haart looked at registrations, listings and sales data across a sample of 20 of its local branches.
Overall, Remain branches saw a 6% fall in the number of listed properties, while Leave branches saw a 1% increase in the number of listings. Six out of ten Leave branches reported an increase in listings, while in Remain areas the opposite was true, with six out of ten reporting a fall in the number of listings. The number of registrations with haart branches fell in both Leave and Remain areas, down 30% on average in Remain areas but only down 23% in Leave areas.
Abandoned Sales
The number of sales which fell through in Leave branches was 2% lower than the proportion before the EU referendum. However in Remain branches, the number of sales which fell through jumped by over 50% on average during the weeks after the vote.
Leave vs Remain branches
Doncaster, an area which voted 69% for Leave, saw a 25% rise in the number of listings in the weeks since the referendum result. Meanwhile in nearby Barnsley, which voted 68% to Leave, the number of sales falling through dropped by 39% after the Brexit result was revealed.
Wisbech, in the district of Fenland, Cambridgeshire, voted 71% for Leave, and saw a 9.6% jump in the number of applicants signing up to branches in the weeks since the vote. In nearby Great Shelford, South Cambridgeshire, an area which voted Remain by 60%, there was a 42% drop in the number of registrations.
Bristol, an area which voted 62% for Remain, saw a decline in activity across all three haart branches in the city. Southville branch saw a drop in registrations of 54% following the referendum, while Fishponds branch saw activity fall by 26% and Shirehampton was down by 22%. Registrations in Bristol as a whole were down by 34%. Across the city there was a 42% increase in the number of abandoned sales.
London falling
haart’s most recent data has shown that in the month of July, London as a whole saw a 5.6% fall in prices, the equivalent of over £30,000 off the average property value, which now stands at £527,349, as the city bares the worst of the post-Brexit uncertainty. Nationally prices have been more stable in the past month, down just 0.9% across England, and now sitting at an average of £233,254. Across London the number of sales was also down 16% in July, while new buyer viewings were down 3.3%. However across London branches, haart data suggests that pro-Leave areas are performing better than areas which voted Remain.
In pro-Europe Battersea in south London, which voted 75% for Remain, there was a 38.2% drop in the number of applicants signing up to haart’s local branch. There was a similar story in East London’s Leytonstone branch – an area which voted 59% for Remain – where the number of properties listed fell by 20% after the referendum. However in Dagenham, further into the capital’s east and an area which voted 62% for Leave, there was a 1.2% increase in the number of properties listed.
Paul Smith, CEO of haart estate agents, comments: “It's clear that the ‘winners’ of the EU referendum are feeling much more confident about the future of the property market than those who voted Remain. The doom and gloom of the campaign has obviously had a lasting impact on how Remain voters feel about the economy and the property market, while Leave voters are much more relaxed. The areas that had the strongest Leave vote are even seeing a small surge in activity.
The reality is that we have a property market heavily driven by sentiment, and it's the confident Leavers who are currently keeping the market afloat. If the government can continue to provide a strong vision for the UK’s post-Brexit future and a clear timetable for an EU exit, greater stability and confidence will follow, which might reassure Remainers. However if they can't be convinced we could see the market and wider economy flat-lining for some time. Nevertheless the fundamentals of the residential market are strong, with people more determined than ever to get on to and move up the ladder, so we have every reason to be confident. When it comes to Brexit, it seems the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”
