House price inflation at lowest level in four years

The latest data and analysis from LSL has revealed that the housing market took a breather in July with a slight dip of 0.2%, reducing the annual rate of house price inflation to 2.9% – the lowest since July 2013.

Related topics:  Property
Warren Lewis
14th August 2017
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According to the figures, the average house price in England and Wales rose by £8,433 - with monthly, prices reaching £298,906 across England and Wales. Transactions slowed, dropping an estimated 9% in July from the previous month. Both prices and transaction data show a marked pause in summer housing market.

Although there has been a slight slowdown in monthly transactions, yearly activity shows regions such as London and East of England are continuing to grow strongly.

Every region across England and Wales recorded annual growth as demand for affordable property continues to rise. Traditionally lower priced boroughs of London and cities outside the commuter belt are beginning to see increased activity and transactions from first time buyers.

Every region in the UK still shows annual growth, however they all slowed in June. The biggest drops in annual growth were in Wales, down 1.5% to just 0.2% for the year, the West Midlands, down 1.3% to 3.3%, and Yorks & Humber and the South East, with annual growth rates falling 1.2% in both to 1.5% and 3.5%, respectively.

A slowdown in the South East means that it looks significantly less buoyant than its three neighbours. In the South West prices are up 4.2% annually, the East Midlands registered an increase of 4.1% and the East of England, which continues to lead the way in England and Wales with annual house price inflation, rose 5.1%.

Nevertheless, something of the re-emerging north-south divide continues to be apparent, with the North East (1.1%), Yorks & Humber (1.5%), Wales (0.2%) and, to a lesser extent, the North West and West Midlands (both up 3.3%) recording weaker growth than the southern regions. Greater London, with 2.4% annual growth remains an exception.

The East of England continues to perform strongly, with all its unitary authority areas showing solid annual growth, led by Southend-on-Sea, up 10.2%, and Luton and Bedfordshire (both up 8%). The former two, along with Peterborough, also recorded new peak prices in the month.

Aside from Southend-on-Sea, four other areas recorded double digit growth in prices on an annual basis: Rutland in the East Midlands, with the highest annual increase (12.9%), albeit on low transaction volumes; Poole (up 10.8%) in the South West, which shows strong growth overall with Bournemouth, up 9.0% annually, also particularly strong; and Pembrokeshire (10.8%) and Blaenau Gwent (10.7%), both bucking the trend in Wales.

Wales also bucks the trend when it comes to transactions: looking at increases in transaction volumes between Q2 2015 and Q2 2017 across all 108 unitary authorities in England and Wales, the top five are all in Wales: Torfaen (+28%), Caerphilly (+26%), Isle of Anglesey (+26%), Ceredigion (+22%) and Wrexham (+19%).

Oliver Blake, Managing Director of Your Move and Reeds Rains estate agents, said: “Annual prices are still rising positively and regions continue to perform strongly – despite the slowdown in transaction numbers over the summer months. Whilst, as a business, we often see this at this time of year, the cause of the dip may also be down to the buy-to-let slowdown as a result of tax changes.”

Russell Quirk, founder and CEO of eMoov.co.uk, commented: "The UK property market has suffered a number of economic and political blows over the last 12 months, particularly the combination of punches dealt to Buy to Let landlords. But whilst growth has slowed of late and the market seems to be against the ropes, there will be no lasting knockout coming in the medium to long term.

The naysayers will continue to talk the market down but its overall strength should not be underestimated and as we start to see monthly growth stabilise again the market should find its feet during the remainder of the year."

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