Homemover market at 9 year high

The volume of people moving house has increased by 9% during the first six months of 2016 compared against the same period last year - with 174,700 people chosing to take advantage of rising equity levels driven by a surge in house prices.

Related topics:  Property
Warren Lewis
15th August 2016
Move
"This improvement is likely to have provided uplift to housing demand amongst existing homeowners even though wage growth has not kept pace during this period"

According to the latest data from Lloyds, this is the highest level of homemovers since 2008, when the number of homemovers reached 179,800 over the same six month period. Since hitting a market low of 117,900 in the first half of 2009 the number of buyers moving along the housing ladder has grown by 48%.  That said; the current numbers still remain at around half the pre-crisis level of 327,600 in the first half of 2007.

Housing affordability improves in the past five years

Housing affordability for Second Steppers – calculated as the average price of a typical Second Stepper home less their current equity position2 as a ratio of average earnings – stood at 6.5 times gross annual average earnings in June 2016. On this measure, affordability has improved over the past five years from 7.3 in 2011. Second Stepper home owners are those still living in their first home but looking to take their next step up the property ladder, and therefore a subset of the homemover market.

Most regions of the UK have seen an improvement in Second Stepper affordability since 2011. The largest improvement was in Northern Ireland where this ratio has fallen from 6.2 in 2011 to 4.9 in 2016, followed by the North (7.2 to 6.0) and Scotland (6.6 to 5.6). In contrast, affordability has deteriorated in London (9.7 to 10.9) and the South East (8.7 to 9.4).

Growing popularity of longer term mortgages

Whilst a mortgage term of 25 years has been the norm for some time, many homemovers are increasingly taking out mortgages where payments are spread over a longer period. In the first half of 2011 the proportion of homemovers taking up a 25 to 35-year mortgage stood at an average of 9%3. For the same period in 2016 this figure had doubled to almost one in five (18%3). Over the same period, the share of mortgages with a 20 to 25 year term dropped from 36%3 to 29%.

Prices and deposits

Over the past five years, the average price paid by homemovers has grown by 38% from £206,997 in 2011, to £261,5504 in June 2016 – an increase of £78,609, equivalent to a monthly increase of £1,310.

In London the average homemover price has grown by 55% since June 2011 to £540,440, the largest increase in the UK. The capital is followed by the South East where homemovers now pay, on average, £382,324 – an increase of 45% in the past 5 years. By contrast, the average homemover price in Northern Ireland has edged up over the same period by just 2% from £156,764 to £159,326.

In the past year the average homemover price has grown by 9% (or £24,056) to £285,606.

The average deposit put down by a homemover has increased by 32% in the past five years, from £72,357 in 2011 to £95,385 in 2016 – this is equivalent to 33% of the average price paid by homemovers. Not surprisingly Londoners put down the largest deposit towards the purchase of their next home; £192,133 (equivalent to 36% of the average price) - four and a half times higher than the average homemover deposit of £42,310 in Northern Ireland, the lowest.

Andrew Mason, Lloyds Bank Mortgage Product Director, said: "The homemover market is at a nine-year high after growing by nine per cent in the past year. A favourable economic backdrop, record low mortgage rates and the stamp duty changes announced in December 2014 have supported the market.

Higher house prices have also boosted homemover equity levels which in turn have helped towards the purchase of the next home. This improvement is likely to have provided uplift to housing demand amongst existing homeowners even though wage growth has not kept pace during this period."

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