Halifax: House price growth rate at five year low

The latest data and analysis of the UK housing market from Halifax has revealed that house prices in the last three months to February were 1.8% higher than in the same three months a year earlier, slowing from the 2.2% annual growth recorded in January.

Related topics:  Property
Warren Lewis
7th March 2018
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According to the report, the average house price now stands at £226,408.

Russell Galley, Managing Director, Halifax, said: “House prices continue to remain broadly flat, as they have since the end of last year. The annual rate of growth has slowed from 2.2% in January to 1.8% in February, the lowest rate of growth since March 2013.

The labour market continues to perform strongly with the number of people in employment rising by 88,000 in the three months to December. Notably, this is almost entirely accounted for by full-time jobs. The strength of the jobs market may finally be benefitting wage growth, with the annual growth rate accelerating from 2.3% in November to 2.8% in December. However, earnings are rising at a slower rate than consumer prices.

Despite the November rise in the Bank of England Base Rate, mortgage rates continue to stay low by historical standards. While we expect price growth to remain low, the low mortgage rate environment, combined with an ongoing shortage of properties for sale, should continue to support house prices over the coming months.”

Russell Quirk, founder and CEO of Emoov.co.uk, had this to say: “Despite the marginal increase, prices have continued to stall heading into spring suggesting the usual seasonal market hangover has persisted for a while longer than usual.

That said, we’ve seen a notable pick up in sellers listing their homes for sale across the UK and while still slightly subdued, there is certainly an appetite from the buyer’s side as well. As this increase in stock starts to filter through to actual sales, we will no doubt start to see a stronger, more sustained rate of upward growth.

While Theresa May’s has set out yet more promises to fix our broken housing market earlier in the week, it seems any meaningful resolution is at best a long way off, at worst unlikely to materialise. As a result, prices will remain buoyant in the long term due to the strain on the nation’s property stock levels, coupled with persistent demand from home buyers as a result of the lower barrier to obtaining a mortgage.” 

Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent, had this to say: "Although a little historic, these figures deserve attention, not least because of their geographical coverage and ability to identify market trends. On balance, Halifax doesn’t record much movement one way or another, a small monthly rise in prices and a small annual fall, which bears out what we are seeing on the ground. There are more listings and viewings but a reluctance to make an offer until clear direction of travel for the market can be established, with buyers and sellers still negotiating hard.

We don’t expect this pattern to alter very much over the next few months unless there is a Brexit breakthrough."

Jonathan Samuels, CEO of Octane Capital, said: "The quarterly decline in prices paints a far more accurate picture of the market than February's rise.

Like the Nationwide last week, the Halifax has singled out the cost of living and sluggish wage growth as arguably the key drag on the market. Though wage growth may have ticked up slightly at the end of last year, for the time being the average household won't be feeling any better off. It's very clear that the financial squeeze on households is impacting demand and, as a result, applying downward pressure on property prices.

What little adrenaline there is in the market is being injected by continued low borrowing costs and the sheer lack of homes for sale. It's hard to see the market picking up until there is clarity on the outcome of Brexit and inflation relaxes its grip on household finances.

 2018 is shaping up to be an uneventful year for the property market, with low single digit growth likely to be as good as it will get." 

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