Last year’s rental predictions: Who got it right?

Last year’s rental predictions: Who got it right?
If we’ve learned one lesson from 2016 it’s that predicting anything is asking for trouble

2016 was not a great year for making predictions – but an investigation into the accuracy of some of the forecasts made by property experts this time last year proves that many were pretty much on the money.

Analysis of property market predictions made by North East sales and lettings firm KIS shows that estate agents Knight Frank correctly prophesised UK annual rent growth of 2.3%, with competitors Belvoir and Savills, and the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors not far behind.

Major estate agency Hampton’s and highly-respected property commentator Henry Pryor, who predicted rises of 5.5% and 6% respectively, turned out to be furthest away from the final figure.

Data from the Office of National Statistics suggests rents across the UK rose by 2.3% in 2016, with figures from insurer Homelet suggesting a slightly higher rise of 3.1%

KIS’ own analysis of 20 North East areas – compiled as part of its monthly Housing Now report – indicates that rents in the region rose from an average of £554 in December 2015 to £591 last month, a rise of 5.9%.

The following predictions for how much UK rents would grow in 2016 were made this time last year:

•  Knight Frank – 2.3%
•  Belvoir - 3%
•  Savills – 3%
•  Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors – 3%
•  Countrywide – 3.5%
•  JLL – 4.5%
•  Price Waterhouse Coopers – 5%
•  Hamptons -5.5%
•   Property Commentator Henry Pryor  (interviewed by Zoopla) – 6%


Ajay Jagota, managing director of KIS Group, had this to say: “If we’ve learned one lesson from 2016 it’s that predicting anything is asking for trouble, but if these figures are anything to go by property experts are doing a much better job of foreseeing the future than professional pollsters do at election time.

The average rent rise prediction in the forecasts we’ve revisited was 3.9%, and although we’re the first to admit that that figure isn’t exactly scientific, it does appear that industry consensus at the start of the year was pretty close to the 3.1%  Homelet recorded at the end.

A big thing to take away from these figures too is that although rents are rising, they aren’t rising as quickly as even some of the experts think. As things are, the market is giving a good deal to both tenants and investors and policy makers should be cautious about pursuing any measures which could jeopardise that”.

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Latest Comments

SecomTech
SecomTech 22 Jun 2017

AT Last...This was discussed years ago and there was a move towards landlords registering their bad tenants on a database..(can't remember where) It seems a logical step though our leaders will probably...

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Bertrand
Bertrand 02 Jun 2017

How about the Welsh Govt introducing a scheme to protect landlords against "rogue" tenants who are then taken to court for criminal damage to the properties they trash. Pretty unlikely I suspect and politically...

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AmberMorris
AmberMorris 25 May 2017

"Please don't pick a novelty tune-playing doorbell. They're not 'fun'. They're stupid." Laughed a lot to this. It's actually true, though.

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Oliver Conway
Oliver Conway 18 May 2017

Making a neat inventory is a good idea, but if the seller is not willing to provide it, can the buyer demand it?

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Bertrand
Bertrand 17 May 2017

First step to nationalisation of the private rented sector IMHO. Nanny state poking their noses into things yet again. I object, as a decent landlord, sometimes having to deal with some pretty awful tenants,...

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Izzy
Izzy 16 May 2017

This is such a great a post. I love the detail you've gone into. It's a very useful article for helping those who are looking at deciding which sector they would like to go into! When I first started investing...

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paul burnham
paul burnham 30 Apr 2017

Jeremy Corbyn's pledge that a Labour government would build 500,000 new council houses must electrify the general election campaign. Reliance on markets and the profit motive has brought huge housing-related...

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CommercialTrust
CommercialTrust 28 Apr 2017

Sadiq Khan?s announcement of an online database of landlords and letting agents who have been convicted of housing offences, appears on face value to be a variation of the already implemented Database

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warren
warren 26 Apr 2017

You're very welcome Mary! Glad you enjoyed them :)

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Mary Ward
Mary Ward 26 Apr 2017

Thank you for the wonderful ideas. First impressions can make or break a deal. It's sadly that many homeowners drop the kerb to create an off-street parking space.

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Tony Gimple
Tony Gimple 14 Apr 2017

I'm not at all surprised that so many landlords are still confused about what the tax changes really mean and how it will affect them. In particular, the blind rush to incorporation is leaving landlords...

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MH
MH 13 Apr 2017

You are right that the bank holidays are going to be spoiled in looking for the properties. But people who want to sell their property and looking for the better relocation, they can get benefits of this...

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