Mohammad Jamei, CML economist had this to say:
"Current activity in the housing market has eased with transactions back down to levels seen almost a year ago. The reform in stamp duty is likely to provide a modest short-term boost in activity over the next few months, but its impact will fade away in the medium term."
CML predicted mortgage lending to grow in 2015 and 2016, but more slowly than this year.
The report expects gross lending to climb modestly from £207 billion in 2014, to £222 billion in 2015, spread across regulated and BTL lending, house purchase and remortgage.
They did however predict stronger growth to £240 billion in 2016, which would represent the strongest performance since 2008.
Paul Hunt, managing director of Phoebus Software, observed: “The gross lending figures released this morning by the CML show a continued downward trend since a high of £19.8 billion in July this year. However, the estimated figure being almost exactly the same as in November 2013 suggests a seasonal influence rather than a complete downturn in the market. It will be interesting to see how things change in the first quarter of 2015 as the new stamp duty rules take effect and we head towards the general election. I think it is likely to be a busy start to the year as people get in before uncertainty takes hold as the election gets nearer .”
Brian Murphy, Head of Lending at Mortgage Advice Bureau (MAB), comments:
“Today’s CML figures show a cooling in the rate of lending following the summer, which is in line with seasonal expectations. While a monthly fall of 9% may seem large, the mortgage market is always sensitive to the tapering of consumer appetite in the second half of the year and a November dip is not unusual.”
There are good reasons for festive cheer with November’s lending total matching November 2013. The year has seen the market face a great degree of regulatory uncertainty over the Mortgage Market Review (MMR) and macro-prudential controls. The market’s resilience has been shown by the fact that gross lending totals have already topped those recorded across the whole of 2013.
It was natural that lending would slow down after the massive volumes recorded in Q3 2014 – which saw the highest quarterly lending figures since the end of the recession. It now looks as though we are entering a period of sustained and steady growth according to CML’s forecast for 2015, where the trajectory of growth will be much smoother going forward.”
